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COUNTRY RISK FORECAST

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COUNTRY RISK

In the last six months, the political and security situation in countries like Brazil, China, Egypt and Ukraine has caused the business community concern.

WHICH ONE WOULD CAUSE
YOU THE MOST CONCERN?

 

CLICK ON YOUR ANSWER BELOW

Slumping economic figures and headline-grabbing corruption trials.

A rebellious mood characterised by protests and political activism.

A country that might be invaded by the nuclear superpower next door.

Embroiled in a bitter
political struggle with no immediate end.

 
A

CHINA

Headline-grabbing corruption trials, tough talk on the high seas, and slumping economic figures. Will China ever make it easy? Not likely. The latest thinking, though, is that the decision to go to China is no longer an automatic yes. It’s a careful, measured decision, even if its population of potential customers is almost immeasurable. Part of the problem is knowing which questions to ask. Start with an on-the-ground view of current conditions and future trends, look beyond the obvious for more nuanced information.

RISK MANAGEMENT

CHINA

The risks in China are prominent, but manageable. None of Control Risks’ ratings for China exceed “medium,” which means conditions for business are generally sound, but merit a high state of vigilance. The obstacles are relatively well known. Managing the risks means having more time to think about China’s potential, particularly in online retail, health care and financial services.

RISK LEVEL

 

Political
Operational
Security
Terrorism

COUNTRY RISK FORECAST
HELPING YOU MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION

 
B

BRAZIL

The world put its faith in Brazil by sending its two biggest events there for a party. Brazil returns the favour by erupting in protest. Is this the World Cup’s first own goal? Emerging markets present the classic mix of risk and reward, and the contrast between Brazil’s natural wealth and its rebellious mood could not be more stark than it is right now. Where does public sentiment go from here? Will political Brazil react to, or lead that trajectory? Brazil is under the microscope. Make sure your view is not distorted.

RISK MANAGEMENT

BRAZIL

The anticipated continuity of the Rousseff presidency after the election should guarantee a level of political stability and an extension of Brazil’s efforts to attract foreign investment. Brazil’s fortunes have been buffeted by the global economic downturn, but Rio and Sao Paulo – electric with opportunity – are only two of the many gateways to a country rich in resources and potential.

RISK LEVEL

 

Political
Operational
Security
Terrorism

COUNTRY RISK FORECAST
HELPING YOU MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION

 
C

UKRAINE

Do you really want to invest in a country that might be invaded by the nuclear superpower next door? From a distance, the answer looks like a no-brainer. Closer up, subtleties emerge. Ukraine’s political and economic systems will be in transition for years; waiting for that process to finish is not an option. Ukrainian industry needs equipment, its increasingly mobile population follows the latest trends, and it still has some of the most fertile land in Europe. You should take a look at Ukraine. You won’t be the only one.

RISK MANAGEMENT

UKRAINE

One of the reasons Russia keeps such a tight grasp on its neighbour to the south is because Ukraine is home to a critical set of economic sectors. Chemicals, metallurgy and agriculture rank high on the list of Ukraine’s most prominent earners, and it’s not all Russia’s for the taking. Even the most acute crises come to an end. Opportunity lies in their wake.

RISK LEVEL

 

Political
Operational
Security
Terrorism

COUNTRY RISK FORECAST
HELPING YOU MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION

 
D

EGYPT

The expression “manage expectations” was made for Egypt. A bitter struggle with no immediate end has followed the ousting of a regime that outlasted many people’s recent memory. In the near term, stability will be hard to come by, but Egypt is of strategic importance to the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. As the country looks to mend, critical sectors will seek engagement from the international business community. But who sets the rules of engagement? Only a close examination of the political and security environment will point toward the safer opportunities.

RISK MANAGEMENT

EGYPT

Egypt is not for the faint-hearted, but emerging markets never were. Still, with a population of more than 80 million, this is a country with a strong appetite for international consumer goods. Other promising sectors include energy and real estate. As the country seeks a new stability and the population continues to grow, other sectors to watch include construction and health care.

RISK LEVEL

 

Political
Operational
Security
Terrorism

COUNTRY RISK FORECAST
HELPING YOU MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION

 

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COUNTRY RISK FORECAST ANALYSIS

China

Headline-grabbing corruption trials, tough talk on the high seas, and slumping economic figures. Will China ever make it easy? Not likely. The latest thinking, though, is that the decision to go to China is no longer an automatic yes. It’s a careful, measured decision, even if its population of potential customers is almost immeasurable. Part of the problem is knowing which questions to ask. Start with an on-the-ground view of current conditions and future trends, look beyond the obvious for more nuanced information.

Analysis

The risks in China are prominent, but manageable. None of Control Risks’ ratings for China exceed “medium,” which means conditions for business are generally sound, but merit a high state of vigilance. The obstacles are relatively well known. Managing the risks means having more time to think about China’s potential, particularly in online retail, health care and financial services.

Risk Level
China

Brazil

The world put its faith in Brazil by sending its two biggest events there for a party. Brazil returns the favour by erupting in protest. Is this the World Cup’s first own goal? Emerging markets present the classic mix of risk and reward, and the contrast between Brazil’s natural wealth and its rebellious mood could not be more stark than it is right now. Where does public sentiment go from here? Will political Brazil react to, or lead that trajectory? Brazil is under the microscope. Make sure your view is not distorted.

Analysis

The anticipated continuity of the Rousseff presidency after the election should guarantee a level of political stability and an extension of Brazil’s efforts to attract foreign investment. Brazil’s fortunes have been buffeted by the global economic downturn, but Rio and Sao Paulo – electric with opportunity – are only two of the many gateways to a country rich in resources and potential.

Risk Level
China

Ukraine

Do you really want to invest in a country that might be invaded by the nuclear superpower next door? From a distance, the answer looks like a no-brainer. Closer up, subtleties emerge. Ukraine’s political and economic systems will be in transition for years; waiting for that process to finish is not an option. Ukrainian industry needs equipment, its increasingly mobile population follows the latest trends, and it still has some of the most fertile land in Europe. You should take a look at Ukraine. You won’t be the only one.

Analysis

One of the reasons Russia keeps such a tight grasp on its neighbour to the south is because Ukraine is home to a critical set of economic sectors. Chemicals, metallurgy and agriculture rank high on the list of Ukraine’s most prominent earners, and it’s not all Russia’s for the taking. Even the most acute crises come to an end. Opportunity lies in their wake.

Risk Level
China

Egypt

The expression “manage expectations” was made for Egypt. A bitter struggle with no immediate end has followed the ousting of a regime that outlasted many people’s recent memory. In the near term, stability will be hard to come by, but Egypt is of strategic importance to the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. As the country looks to mend, critical sectors will seek engagement from the international business community. But who sets the rules of engagement? Only a close examination of the political and security environment will point toward the safer opportunities.

Analysis

Egypt is not for the faint-hearted, but emerging markets never were. Still, with a population of more than 80 million, this is a country with a strong appetite for international consumer goods. Other promising sectors include energy and real estate. As the country seeks a new stability and the population continues to grow, other sectors to watch include construction and health care.

Risk Level
China

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